Chance To Use

Semantics
For purposes of clarity, use (italicized) refers to the OHOL stat while "use" (non-italicized) is the conversational and typical meaning of the word. For further clarity, and legibility, use is referred to as charge (still italicized) later on this page.

Chance To Use
Chance To Use—(CTU)—is a behind the scenes mechanic that is employed to create variance on certain resources, objects, and tasks. This helps approximate the natural, and sometimes random, variances in the real world—for instance not all real life ponds hold the exact same amount of water—and diminish the amount of "power gaming" strategies savvy players could abuse. It has also created much confusion for new and old players alike.

This stat also helps to balance, and moderate the difficulty, of the game; some objects have a limited time they maybe be effective for before they decay and others have a limited amount of uses. While all player interactions can be thought of to carry this stat some objects don't appear to have a CTU as their Number of Uses—(NOU)—is effectively unlimited. For instance, a sharp stone, can be employed indefinitely as it will not change states (depreciate) through the application of the item; the sharp stone doesn't have a chance to lose or change function just by using it.

This means that while it can be used it will never run out of uses giving it an effective CTU of 0%. The sharp stone's NOU is irrelevant, as a stat, since the item can't be "used up". The sharp stone stays sharp and as such is an incredibly hard stone. Stats for any specific item's CTU can be found on the official website under the Tech Tree. Items with unlisted 'CTU-s can either be used infinitely or only once.

Example
The Steel Hoe carries only 5 uses. These 5 uses can be thought of as 5 charges. This would typically result in the item only being used 5 times before depreciating into a broken steel tool—not a very good hoe—but because it has a CTU of 8% there is only an 8% chance that 1 of the item's charges will be expended while performing that action. This tool could be an OK hoe. Or it could be a spectacular hoe. Only chance will tell.

It may be helpful to think of an item's CTU as its chance to (not) be "damaged" but this stat is widely used—discussed later on this page—so to keep the language consistent on an already confusing topic it is still presented as a charge/use on this section.

In the case of the Steel Hoe, tilling Fertile Soil will always create a Shallow Tilled Row but might not use up a charge.

Contrast
A sharp stone effecting Rose Madder to produce a Rose Madder Root. The stone is unaffected during the process.

Whereas the Steel Hoe might expend 1 charge in its production of a Shallow Tilled Row.

Last Use
Objects that change states through use have a different CTU when they have 1 charge/use left. This is sometimes visually represented—when a tool is about to break, or a very empty pond (before dry)—but some objects don't have a visual notification for their Last Use (LU). It's important to note that LU is also on objects that are "full" or "new"; LU applies to any object that only has 1 charge--objects that have to change into a different state through this time's usage. While the entire list of items hasn't been checked, almost all CTU stats are different during a LU. This is so that certain events trigger without fail. There is no "chance" that placing water into a Dry Pond won't change it from being dry; its LU is 100%. There is also no "chance" that a Full Shallow Well, LU 100%, won't depreciate into a typical Shallow Well, when water is taken out of it.

CTU Tables
A table of common tools and resources that have a CTU (as a %, ascending), along with their Estimated Number of Uses (ENU). The table can appear to suggest that items at the lower end of the table, like Skewers, should be stockpiled and guarded as they depreciate quickly through use, but that would be misconstruing the data. This table is only relevant in pointing out two major, but common misplays by the camp's blacksmith. First, is that smith is grossly overestimating the depreciation of their Smithing Hammers (based, empirically, on how many they feverishly build in each arc—without fail—as if steel's only purpose was to make something to bang more steel with and is not a useful, and/or precious and scarce building material at all...), and second, as Mr. Duckworth points out, that your camp needs to build more Steel Hoes.

''ENU is derived from the mathematical probability—Expected Value—of the item "breaking". This expected value is an average and it could be that any given experience will be seem widely different, even within the same life. That is a product of probabilistic game design and the table below is derived from rules governing each item's probability of failure. Therefor the ENU, and this table, is just an approximation. Default "minimum uses" are built in via NOUs—the Steel Hoe will always be usable at least 5 times—and upper limits are likely implemented as well, though that information is both speculative and not made available to the player via the official website. However, it may potentially be surmised through parsing the open source code.''

NOU Table
A table of common tools that do not depreciate—probabilistically—but do have a finite NOU (descending).

List of Exceptions
An alphabetical list of common tools that do  not  have a CTU; These are tools that will last indefinitely:


 * Arrow
 * Bone Needle
 * Charcoal Pencil


 * Drop Spindle
 * Elder Quill Ink Pen
 * Fire Bow Drill
 * Firebrand
 * Flint
 * Flint Arrowhead
 * Flint Chip
 * Flint-tipped Bow Drill
 * Forge
 * Key
 * Knife
 * Knitting Needles
 * Long Straight Shaft
 * Loom
 * Net
 * Property Fence Twigs
 * Rubber Ball
 * Sharp Stone
 * Small Curved Branch
 * Small Curved Shaft
 * Snare
 * Stomper
 * Stone
 * Straight Branch
 * Weak Skewer
 * Yew Bow

Tip: Almost all items on the previous list need to be made/found only few times or even just once. An over-population of these items—which leads to town-killing clutter—occurs because these items go missing in backpacks or they grow feet. Keeping tools in a common area, and returning them after their use, prevents them from being made/found multiple times and saves time/resources/our-precious-and-fragile-will-to-play.

Animal Movement
CTU is also applied to the movement of Bison. There is a 25% CTU that a bison will use one of their movements (they have a total of 5) when they move. This is aids in hunting them.